Climate Change: An Emerging Consensus Issue
By Ian Plunkett, September 2023
Over the past few years, polarization has further exposed fractures in our public discourse. Instead of searching for common ground and seeking compromise, the politics of zero-sum has reemerged as the standard-bearer of our present moment.
From human rights and free and fair elections, to the importance of an independent media and judiciary, the hallmarks of our political reality are fragmenting in ways that seem without modern precedent. What is driving these dynamics are a political culture and information ecosystem that no longer reward compromise, compassion, and the importance of shared ideals.
In sectors ranging from education and healthcare, to popular culture and technology, we’re seeing a tribalism that is electorally resonant and driving ratings and extreme online engagement. However, amid the factionalism, one issue provides–somewhat ironically–cause for optimism.
The climate bloc
Climate change is becoming a rare thing in our political culture: an emerging consensus issue. As we noted in our earlier piece on the seven trends that pushed us to start Blue Owl Group, climate change is transitioning from a polarized conversation to a subject of coherence and tacit agreement. Regardless of how you perceive its origin story, changes to our natural environment are causing widespread ecological, human, and economic destruction—much of which is entirely preventable. Debates about the origin of something become a lot less important when people can feel the acute effects outside their door.
What this conglomeration of public attitudes amounts to is a new base in our body politic—something we are calling the climate bloc. This bloc increasingly believes that the government, the private sector, and individuals must work to prevent, mitigate, and plan for the effects of climate change. How emphasis is weighted along this scale of responsibility is often personal and ideological, e.g., the role of state or private sector innovation, for example. But the trendlines are clear: more people now agree on climate change than disagree. The public is getting close to consensus—and it is a global phenomenon.
Overall, the individuals in this climate bloc—each with their own unique concerns, hopes, and dreams—have many things in common. They want to ensure their home isn’t burned down or flooded. They want access to clean water and protected national parks. They want their children to go on school trips without fear of hurricanes, heatwaves, or storms. They want their communities to be resilient in the face of Mother Nature’s increasing unpredictability and raw power. Some want big cars, some want small cars—but most want them to be economically efficient. They want low-carbon or electrified transport options, and better public infrastructure. They want lower-cost household utilities. They want corporate profits–particularly those derived from fossil fuel exploration–to have less influence in public policy formation and elections.
Division starts to look a little different when the core building blocks of a stable, healthy life for you and your loved ones feel precarious and threatened. Indeed, one of the biggest moments of the first Fox-produced 2024 Republican presidential debate was when first-time candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, was roundly booed by the audience when he emphatically stated, “Climate change is a hoax.”
A singular coordination opportunity
Climate change is the greatest coordination opportunity of our lifetime. The borderless and interconnected nature of our natural ecosystems, air quality, weather systems, food production, soil health, and water quality call for a unified focus.
If you are prone to adopting a pessimistic view, you might predict a global retrenchment to the politics of nativism and isolation as climate change worsens. However, when a wildfire erupts in Northern Canada and subsequently turns the New York skyline orange and affects the air quality of more than 100 million Americans, it becomes evident that the reactionary politics of nationalism offer little in the way of solutions.
It’s possible, therefore, that we will be compelled by the better nature of our domestic and geopolitical angels to engage with our neighbors, particularly as the climate bloc consolidates, finds opportunities for shared political action across the traditional ideological spectrum, and demands both state-stimulated and market-based solutions.
If you’re reading this and you believe this sounds at best like the naivete of an optimist, or, at worst, a glaring underappreciation of the individualist, raw base-level instincts of human nature, it’s important to remember one thing: this threat is unlike any other that humanity has ever faced. It’s not a state or an army. It’s not an ideology, nor a single company. Therefore, blame is not easily or neatly apportioned (although the responsibility disproportionately rests on the shoulders of developed countries, who dramatically outweigh the rest of the world in carbon emissions).
Carbon is being excessively emitted at the individual, community, national, regional, and supranational levels. Regardless of your perspective, that is a unique dynamic that must be recognized and reckoned with.
The decarbonization arc bends in one direction only
Despite the fossil sector trying to consolidate as much profit and power as it can before the tipping point, 2023 represented the fastest year on record for the clean energy transition.
Is it enough to mitigate the worst effects of climate change? Not even close. But if you want to assess how global politics is realigning around climate in the the 21st century (and the degree to which local populations are demanding change), let’s look at the facts:
India is working to install 500 gigawatts of clean energy in the next seven years, enough to power anywhere from 150 to 500 million homes.
A new analysis from the International Energy Agency suggests that the industrial capacity to manufacture solar panels, wind turbines, and electrolyzers could put us on track to reach many net-zero goals by 2030.
The EU–now operating as a relatively unified bloc since the Russian invasion of Ukraine–is pushing for a global pledge to phase out the unabated use of fossil fuels “well ahead of 2050” at COP28, according to climate chief Frans Timmermans.
Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon dropped by a third during the first six months of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s term, according to government satellite data.
Ecuador recently passed legislation aimed at protecting a particularly biodiverse part of its territory from exploitation by extraction industries, including Big Oil.
The first-ever treaty to protect biodiversity in waters outside national boundaries, known as the high seas, has been adopted by UN members.
London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) is setting a new emissions control precedent for cities around the world and the Paris 15-minute city movement is being reviewed as a source of inspiration for urban planners around the world.
Colombia wants to help slow global climate change, protect regional biodiversity and bolster Indigenous People’s rights by decoupling the nation’s economy from fossil fuels, starting with a ban on new oil and coal exploration permits.
According to the International Energy Agency’s Electricity Market Report 2023, 90% of new electricity demand between now and 2025 will be covered by clean energy sources like wind and solar, along with nuclear energy.
Bolstered by renewed European energy solidarity in the face of Russian aggression, wind and solar power were responsible for a record fifth (22%) of the EU’s electricity, which is a big step in the right direction.
While not weaning off coal fast enough, China is becoming the unrivaled global leader in renewable energy expansion, adding new projects to the grid last year—and at a pace as fast as the rest of the world combined.
The United States adopted the most sweeping redevelopment of its energy and environmental policy in the nation’s history. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is not without its detractors, but the scale of the ambition is already bearing fruit, and sends a strong signal that America sees its future as a renewable one.
While some developments may look isolationist and inward-looking, they could also represent the antecedents of a transformational moment, particularly for how policymakers coordinate and leverage people’s talents, policy ingenuity, and technological leadership across communities and countries to drive back a threat that is without modern precedent.
The arc is bending in one direction. Organizations–both for-profit and nonprofit–would be wise to track these moments of geopolitical and electoral alignment, and to be ahead of the curve. Investors, customers, Board members, regulators, and broad publics will all demand decarbonization—and proof. They will want to see quarterly reporting, periodic transparency initiatives, and to better understand how leaders navigate the realities of a world where climate change is front and center—politically, socially, economically, and culturally. That’s before the inevitable and mandatorily-enacted measures that are coming down the track from governments, forcing organizations to act. Indeed, JP Morgan recently called decarbonization this era’s ‘megatrend’ that no organization can ignore (seeing the scale of the potential investor upside, they want to lend $2.5 trillion to clean energy projects).
Conclusion
What is clear is that the things that divide the public on the issue of climate change–the political discourse, the partisan news coverage, the cultural framing–are beginning to yield to an emerging consensus. Those who ignore this trend are setting themselves up for failure. Climate change is no longer a reliable wedge issue that can be cynically weaponized by corporate and political power brokers, but rather one that is rapidly uniting more people than it divides—across the political spectrum. And that positive dynamic will only become more energized and politically impactful as people across the world face more unspeakable horrors, like recent flooding in Pakistan, extraordinarily destructive wildfires in Maui, or historic drought and desertification in the Horn of Africa. Once again, the eyes of the world–with even more urgency and anxious expectation–will be on COP28 this November.
At Blue Owl Group, we want to work with organizations who look at climate change with a sense of urgency and realism, but also the profound excitement, creativity, and optimism it demands. And we are particularly eager to work with leaders, investors, entrepreneurs, and organizations who share the belief that innovative technology can help mitigate environmental harms and chart a path forward.
The reality is that climate change could be the single issue that brings the walls down on an era of acute division and creates more cross-border, economic, geopolitical, and cultural interdependence than we’ve ever seen before. Not because of an ideology, but because of existential necessity. The opportunities for shared understanding and global coordination are worth fighting for—and humanity has no choice. Everyone must play their part. Apathy and inaction are no longer an option.
